Australia, the World Cup’s Unluckiest Country

We simulated tens of thousands of possible draws using the FIFA rules and compared how good or bad the actual draw for each country is.

A good draw means that a team starts in a group with teams that are equally strong or weaker. Repectively, a bad draw is one where a team starts in a group with much stronger teams.

As it turned out, Mexico was the luckiest country in the 2014 World Cup, and Australia was the unluckiest.

In collaboration with David Leonhardt.